Preseason Power Rankings Are Worth What They Cost

September 7, 2011 By Bill

The endless lists of preseason power rankings hold all the predictive power of Johnny Carson as Carnac the Magnificent. And they are almost as funny. (If you are old like me, and it’s been too long, treat yourself.)

I thought it would be worth a minute to look at just how accurate the collective football genius of the brain trust at ESPN was in their predictions last year.

Compare the first two columns. Not. Even. Close.

ESPN’s 2010 Week 1 Power Ranking	2011 Draft Order (Reversed)	ESPN’s 2011 Week 1 Power Ranking
1. Indianapolis Colts	32. Green Bay Packers	1. Green Bay Packers
2. New Orleans Saints	31. Pittsburgh Steelers	2. New England Patriots
3. Green Bay Packers	20. New York Jets	3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Dallas Cowboys	29. Chicago Bears	4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Minnesota Vikings	28. New England Patriots	5. New Orleans Saints
6. Baltimore Ravens	27. Atlanta Falcons	6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Atlanta Falcons	26. Baltimore Ravens	7. New York Jets
8. San Diego Chargers	25. Seattle Seahawks	8. Baltimore Ravens
9. New York Jets	24. New Orleans Saints	9. Indianapolis Colts
10. New England Patriots	23. Philadelphia Eagles	10. San Diego Chargers
11. Miami Dolphins	22. Indianapolis Colts	11. Houston Texans
12. Cincinnati Bengals	21. Kansas City Chiefs	12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13. San Francisco 49ers	20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13. Chicago Bears
14. Houston Texans	19. New York Giants	14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Philadelphia Eagles	18. San Diego Chargers	15. New York Giants
16. Tennessee Titans	17. Oakland Raiders	16. Detroit Lions
17. Washington Redskins	16. Jacksonville Jaguars	17. St. Louis Rams
18. Pittsburgh Steelers	15. Miami Dolphins	18. Kansas City Chiefs
19. New York Giants	14. St. Louis Rams	19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Arizona Cardinals	13. Detroit Lions	20. Minnesota Vikings
21. Chicago Bears	12. Minnesota Vikings	21. Arizona Cardinals
22. Denver Broncos	11. Houston Texans	22. Oakland Raiders
23. Carolina Panthers	10. Washington Redskins	23. Tennessee Titans
24. Oakland Raiders	9. Dallas Cowboys	24. Miami Dolphins
25. Jacksonville Jaguars	8. Tennessee Titans	25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Seattle Seahawks	7. San Francisco 49ers	26. San Francisco 49ers
27. Kansas City Chiefs	6. Cleveland Browns	27. Denver Broncos
28. Detroit Lions	5. Arizona Cardinals	28. Washington Redskins
29. Cleveland Browns	4. Cincinnati Bengals	29. Cleveland Browns
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3. Buffalo Bills	30. Buffalo Bills
31. Buffalo Bills	2. Denver Broncos	31. Carolina Panthers
32. St. Louis Rams	1. Carolina Panthers	32. Cincinnati Bengals

My guess is that if you trained a monkey to move 32 mangets from one column to form a new one, it would probably come about as close as ESPN did. Maybe closer.

The formula for creating preseason power rankings works like this: begin with the draft order, adjust for how well/poorly you believe each team drafted, make a couple of shifts based solely on personal biases, and then move up a couple of east coast teams and a west coast team just to cater to their fans. TA DA! Power rankings on the easy.

Based on the monumental load of cow chips that column 3 represents, we can be sure of one thing. If the Bengals are picked to finish last, they won’t. For that, ESPN, we thank you. Bengals fans everywhere would be more than happy to be picking around #14 next year, just like the Rams (your whipping boy from last year) did this year.