August 1, 2014

Bengals Playoff Chances: 13%

According to PlayoffStatus.com, a site I discovered with a simple Google search and whose methodology is uncertain, the Bengals have a 13% chance of making the playoffs.

I have no idea how this number was reached, but it sounds about right. Yes, the Jets could lose two games or the season finale in Miami. Yes, Tennessee could somehow lose to Indianapolis, Jacksonville, or Houston, especially if rookie quarterback Jake Locker is starting. Yes, Oakland seems almost certain to lose at least one more game. And perhaps Cincinnati could finish this season 3-0.

But could all of it happen together? Probably not, which makes the 13-percent forecast sound about right. For what it’s worth, the Jets have a 56-percent chance of getting in, followed by the Raiders at 23-percent, and the Titans at 19.

I suppose 13-percent still allows for a shred of hope for the eternal optimists, but it’s best for Bengals Nation if we brace ourselves for the offseason, which has an 87-percent chance of starting sooner rather than later.

Who Dey. Sigh.

Comments

  1. Drew Murphy says:

    So you’re telling me there’s a chance! Yeah!!!

  2. The Eternal Who-Dey Optimist says:

    According to my preferred source, sportsclubstats.com – Who Dey has a 12.7% of reaching the postseason via its “weighted” calculation (figuring in individual probabilities of winning each game) or 14.9% chance (with its “50/50″ calculations, where each team is given a 50% chance of winning each game). As you said, seems about right.

    The interesting stat is that IF Who Dey can go 3-0 to finish the season (a universally agreed-upon necessity), their chances of playoffs are 51% or 63%, respectively.

    Philly is picked to win by 3 over NYJ this Sunday.

    Indy’s got Andrew Luck pretty much locked up at this point, right – no harm in winning one for the home fans this week!!!!

    Who knows, things might look a lot better after this weekend. And if the Texans or Pats and Steelers can lose another one and the Ravens win the next 2, perhaps the Ravens might rest some starters against us in week 17?

    The playoffs are on life support right now, but not dead – Let’s get a win against St. Louis and see what develops…

    WHO DEY 4EVER!!!!!

  3. The Eternal Who-Dey Optimist says:
  4. The Eternal Who-Dey Optimist says:

    Scenarios to get Who-Dey in:

    (*note I am assuming Tebow wins the AFCW)

    WHO DEY WINS OUT and:

    1. Jets lose both @PHI, NYG (same stadium). OAK loses one remaining game (DET, @KC, SDC). Then it shouldn’t matter what TEN does b/c we win head to head tiebreaker.

    2. Jets lose @MIA, TEN loses one remaining game (@IND, JAC, @HOU), OAK loses one remaining game. We win tiebreaker with Jets due to better conference record. We would lose tiebreaker with OAK due to worse division record.

    These are the only 2 scenarios I can come up with. If Tebow doesn’t win the West, it gets more complicated since Who Dey lost to PTD (Pre-Tebow Denver) of course and Tebow would likely win based on conference record.

    If anybody else can think of any other possibilities please post ‘em!

    • Bill says:

      East: If NE is going to lose again this year, it is going to be this week to the Denver Tebows. I am very curious to see if the Tebow defense can slow Brady just enough for Tebow Almighty to spin another miracle. I can’t picture Miami or Buffalo knocking them off.

      West: It is hard for me to see the Denver Tebows not winning the division. At this point, I’m wondering if Oakland doesn’t finish 3rd in the division behind San Diego. Buyers remorse has to be setting in there soon.

      North: Their game this week in San Diego, who is starting to play better, is huge. A loss there reshuffles the entire playoff landscape. The Steelers also go west to face the 49ers. I think the Steelers go down out there. They face no challenges after that though (St Louis and Cleveland).

      South: The Texans will NOT lay down against the Titans. Right now they own the #1 seed, and they will want to win all 3 remaining games to keep home field advantage. The only way that the Texans are in a position to throw away the Titans game and still own the #1 seed is if the Patriots, the Ravens and the Steelers all lose this week.

      By the same reasoning, the Bengals will also get the Ravens best shot in Week 17 to maintain the #2 seed and the bye week. The only way that if the Ravens could possibly choose to rest their talent against the Bengals is if they should lose in SD and the Steelers beat SF this week. If they should slip and give control of the division to Pittsburgh, they could possibly just accept the #5 seed and use Week 17 as a sort of bye. But I doubt it. I have to think that they will still play everyone, partly for pride and partly hoping the Browns could pull out a miracle against the Steelers to give the division back to the Ravens.

  5. The Eternal Who Dey Optimist says:

    Revision: If NYJ lose any 2 games, OAK loses 1, and Who Dey wins out, Who Dey is in no matter what TEN does. If NYJ lose only 1 game it must be against MIA and then TEN must lose 1.

  6. Lee says:

    Oh what could have been? When is the draft preview podcast?