October 1, 2014

Realistic Playoff Scenario – Bengals Get In With Help

The Bengals crashed and burned against the Texans, but there is still hope...

The disaster that was the loss to the Texans last week really took the air out of the Bengals balloon, but it did not end our playoff chances.  While we are eliminated from contention for the division title, a wild card berth is still within reach, though just barely.

The Jets, at 8-5, are a game ahead of the Bengals, Titans, and Raiders for the final playoff spot in the AFC.  While the Bengals hold a head to head tiebreaker with the Titans, they can only use it if the tie is only between those two teams.  The Titans have a relatively soft schedule, facing the hapless Colts, the pathetic Jaguars, and the Texans, who have clinched a spot and may have nothing to play for in week 17.  That makes it paramount for the Bengals to win out, and hope that the Jets and Raiders stumble along the way.

The Jets play the Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins and need to lose two of three or lose to the Dolphins if nobody else besides the Bengals makes it to 10-6.  It seems more possible for the Jets to lose to the Eagles now that Vick is back, and the grudge match against the Giants also seems like a possible loss.  The Raiders play the Lions, Chiefs, and Chargers, of which the Lions seem like a tough game even in the Black Hole.

Here is one scenario that puts the Bengals in the playoffs:

  • Bengals win vs. Rams, Cardinals, and beat Baltimore at home to end the season.
  • Raiders drop one, possibly to the Lions.
  • Jets lose to the Eagles and Giants.
  • Titans win out.

Another scenario that gets the Bengals in:

  • Bengals win vs. Rams, Cardinals, and beat Baltimore at home to end the season.
  • Raiders drop one, possibly to the Lions.
  • Jets lose to the Dolphins.
  • Titans lose one, possibly to the Texans.

Another scenario exists should the Bengals lose one game the rest of the way.  There would still be a chance to make the playoffs, provided that the Raiders lose twice (say the Lions and Chargers), the Titans lose one (say the Texans), and the Jets would have to lose all three of their remaining games.  Sure, it is unlikely, but there is still something to play for.   Hopefully Marvin can get the team to focus on what they can control, which is how they play this weekend in St. Louis.

Who Dey!

Comments

  1. Lee says:

    Lets hope.

  2. WHO DEstiny!!! (formerly known as the Eternal Who Dey Optimist) says:

    Although the win today was as ugly as it gets, the rest of the league was very good to the Who-Dey cause: The Jets, Raiders, and Titans all lost.

    So at this point, I am still assuming Tebow wins the West. The losses by both Tebow and the Raiders maintained Tebow’s one-game lead.

    So to get in the playoffs, the math is now much simpler:

    1. Who-Dey wins out
    2. Jets lose either remaining game (vs. NYG, @ MIA)

    Now there are scenarios that could get Who Dey in at 9-7, we would need the Jets to lose out, and we would need the Raiders to lose one more. If the Raiders win out and Tebow loses out, the Raiders would take the division but at 9-7 we would lose the tiebreaker to Tebow. Thus no matter who wins the west, we don’t get in at 9-7 unless Oakland loses another game. We still hold a tiebreaker against the Titans at 9-7, so basically the Titans are no longer any threat to Who Dey at any level.