August 22, 2014

Dalton > Weeden

Recently I was the target of all the venom that Cleveland Browns fans could muster because I said that taking Brandon Weeden at #22 was a terrible pick. Some of that venom was toxic enough to set the Cuyahoga River on fire… again. A few of them made interesting comments, while others proved that Cleveland is entirely too close to the black hole of intelligent thought known as Pittsburgh.

Let me preface this post by noting up front that I did not call taking Weeden a terrible pick because I think Weeden will be a terrible QB. On the contrary, I expect that he can be a decent QB, maybe a pretty good QB. But he has a good chance of getting run out of Cleveland before he has the chance to get there.

To begin a look at what is reasonable to expect out of a rookie in Weeden, let’s list other QBs to go at around his pick of #22 to establish a baseline.

  • Tim Tebow, #25 in 2010
  • Josh Freeman, #17 in 2009
  • Joe Flacco, #18 in 2008
  • Brady Quinn, #22 in 2007
  • Aaron Rodgers, #24 in 2005
  • Jason Campbell, #25 in 2005
  • J.P. Losman, #22 in 2004
  • Kyle Boller, #19 in 2003
  • Rex Grossman, #22 in 2003
  • Patrick Ramsey, #32 in 2002
  • Chad Pennington, #18 in 2000

I see two good players, a media darling, and a bunch of uninspiring names.

Including Tebow is unproductive to this discussion because he is a different animal entirely, though I could include him if I wanted to artificially drive down the baseline. That leaves us with 10 guys to consider. I will even include Aaron Rodgers’ exceptional numbers, though I doubt many are going to argue that Weeden will be the elite talent that Rodgers is. (If you want to make that case, please entertain us.)

Now let’s look at each of these guys’ first year as the man under center. Since most of them did not start in Week 1, I have used the yards/games played to extrapolate his production for a full 16-game season.

  • Josh Freeman: 1855 yds in 10 games = 2968 yds
  • Joe Flacco: 2971 yds in 16 games
  • Brady Quinn: 1339 yds in 10 games = 2142 yds (2009 season, after sitting as a backup for 2 years)
  • Aaron Rodgers: 4038 yds in 16 games (2008 season, after sitting as a backup for 3 years)
  • Jason Campbell: 1297 yds in 7 games = 2965 yds (2006 season, after sitting as a backup for 1 year)
  • J.P. Losman: 1340 yds in 9 games = 2382 yds (2005 season, after sitting as a backup for 1 year)
  • Kyle Boller: 1260 yds in 11 games = 1833 yds
  • Rex Grossman: 3193 yds in 16 games (2006 season, after sitting as a backup for 3 years)
  • Patrick Ramsey: 1539 yds in 9 games = 2736 yds
  • Chad Pennington: 3328 yds in 15 games = 3328 yds (2002 season, after sitting as a backup for 2 years)

Add up our ten players’ extrapolated first full season — only four of whom were true rookies like Weeden will be — and we come to 28556 yds, or an average of 2856 yds per guy. (If I limited the list to just the four rookies, our total would be 10508 yds, or an average of 2627 yds for a rookie. But we’ll go with the higher number.)

Colt McCoy’s production last year (which led one Brown’s fan to refer to him as “hot dumpster water”) was 2733 yds, a mere 123 yards below my baseline expectation for Weeden. So if Weeden merely matches this average for a rookie, which I think is a respectable level for a rookie, I see no reason to expect that he will get any different treatment from Browns fans than McCoy is getting right now. More importantly, if Holmgren is abandoning McCoy now, will he abandon Weeden too? I have to seriously question how Weeden will be treated in Cleveland if he does not exceed 3000 yds passing, a level that Joe Flacco did not exceed as a rookie.

Switching from the spread offense to a pro-style offense is not automatic, which both McCoy and Weeden ran in college. It is going to take time to change up that technique, time I’m not sure his fan base will give to Weeden. Both were touted as being smart, having a quick release, accurate throws (at least in the short game for McCoy), and being mobile when needed.

Overall, Weeden has the advantage of a better arm than McCoy, and that will be his savior at times. But he has the disadvantage of fewer starts (2 years to McCoy’s 4 years) and being a true rookie who is changing systems and learning new technique, which will offset that advantage to some extent.

Weeden also faces the disadvantage of a tough schedule. More than one Browns fan has asserted to me that the Bengals only found success last year because of a soft schedule… a schedule in which the Browns faced 12 of the same opponents out of 14, plus facing the Bengals twice, and could only muster a 4-12 record. But this year Weeden will be facing the much tougher NFC East (instead of the rather weak NFC West, save SF) and an improved AFC West (instead of the uncharacteristically weak AFC South). Not an easy road for a rookie.

When the book is closed on the 2012 season, I think the Browns will again be around 4-12. Slightly improved because of Weeden and TR, but not nearly to the extent that Browns fans want to believe. For a rookie going against a slate like this year’s, that ain’t bad. The defenses in the AFC North are notoriously tough and are going to give a rookie fits, so I see another 0-6 year in the division. The one potential in from the AFC East is against WAS, although RG3 may well have found his mojo by then. I can see a win against OAK or maybe a stolen win against a SD team that never travels well. And they have good shots against BUF and IND.

Before I go, I need to circle back to the title: Dalton > Weeden.

Browns fans make excuses, but the fact is that Dalton threw for the 5th most yards by a rookie QB in NFL history, a fact that was buried by Cam Newton’s historic season. And he did it following the extremely short offseason, another protest used by Browns fans to excuse their poor offense last year. (If you are going to trot out the “soft schedule” argument, then I expect you to explain how his best game — nearly 400 yds passing — came against the Ravens, the #4 passing defense in 2011.)

“Well, you Bengals homer, if Dalton did that well, so can Weeden.” Uh, no, that’s not going to happen. Here’s why.

Dalton ran a pro-style offense at TCU, so he did not have to change nearly as much of his technique as Weeden will. He did not take a significant majority of snaps from the shotgun like Weeden did. And he spent four years running the pro-style offense, not just two years in the spread like Weeden. Weeden will produce like a respectable rookie, but he will not — repeat, will not — throw for more yards than Dalton as a rookie.

Unfortunately for Weeden, producing like a respectable rookie will be just good enough to get him run out of town.


UPDATE: I EXPECT BOTH SIDES TO KEEP IT CIVIL THIS TIME AROUND. THE NAME-CALLING IS JUVENILE AND UNPRODUCTIVE. I WILL DELETE COMMENTS FROM ANYONE WHO CANNOT MANAGE TO STICK TO THE TOPIC.

Comments

  1. Matthew James says:

    Cinci “fans” are garbage. How many games did you sell out last year? Was it 1? And did that only happen when you offered a B.O.G.O. deal. Attended a game last year and your tailgating is a pathetic joke and you were overpowered by the opposing fans. What type of fan base can’t sell out games for a playoff team? Focus on your pathetic excuse for a football city and leave the real football towns out of it. Go root for your NBA team. Oh that’s right, you’re too small of a market to support one. At least you have the Reds HAHAHAHAHA!

    • Bill says:

      WARNING TO EVERYONE: THIS IS THE ONLY COMMENT OF THIS NATURE THAT I WILL LEAVE ON THIS THREAD, ONLY BECAUSE HE POSTED IT BEFORE I ADDED THE UPDATE.

      IF YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THE TOPIC, WONDERFUL. IF YOU HAVE NOTHING MORE INTELLIGENT THAN THIS TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION, DON’T BOTHER COMMENTING.

      LET’S DISCUSS AND DISAGREE LIKE ADULTS. I WILL DELETE ALL FURTHER COMMENTS BY ANYONE THAT RESORT TO NAME-CALLING, INSULTS AND ATTACKS ON ANOTHER FAN BASE.

      YOU HAVE BRAINS. USE THEM.

      • alekccincy says:

        Is it okay to at least correct Matthew James? 1) we spell it “Cincy” 2) If you really did attend a game (not sure I believe you), where did you tailgate? I’ve had several friends who are Browns fans give high compliments for the tailgate atmosphere at Longworth’s Hall 3) The type of fan base with a tumultuous relationship with current ownership 4) “Go root for your NBA team. Oh that’s right, you’re too small of a market to support one.” Assuming you hail from somewhere in NE Ohio, you might be surprised to learn that Cincinnati is the largest MSA in Ohio.

  2. YourMom says:

    Oh boy where do I start. Nice article, but you cant use the amount yards a QB throws in his first season to use that as a base to how much success they’re going have. Joe flacco threw for under 3,000 yards, made the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers three for over 4,000 in his first season as a starter and went 6-10. Yards passing =/= wins. It’s not that colt didn’t exceed 3000 yards, he just looked flat out bad. Granted the pieces around him weren’t average by any means, he still looked very bad. Yeah weeden came from a spread offense, but he has played under center in college. I do believe they went from playing under center to running a spread offense. The browns’ schedule this year looks tough if you do count what the teams did last year, but like every year those teams that did bad last year won’t necessarily do bad this year. Do you really think SD will go 8-8 again this year? Probably not. While I think the browns won’t amass much more than 6 wins, I do think they won’t be as bad as the colt McCoy led browns. I agree weeden probably won’t pass for as many or more yards than dalton, it’s easy to see dalton entered the nfl with a playoff caliber offensive line and a good young defense. The bengals have more talent around them than the browns do on both sides of the ball that made daltons adjustment in the nfl a lot easier. Weeden ran a pro style system in college that was similar to the one he was running with the bengals.

    • YourMom says:

      By success I meant win/loss wise.

    • Bill says:

      True, not a 1:1 correlation, but with no pro stats on Weeden, what do you prefer I use? Rodgers yards-to-wins comes from the offense-oriented NFC, while Flacco’s comes from the more defense-oriented to balanced AFC. Unless you expect the Brown’s defense to carry the team as well as the Ravens’ did for Flacco, I just can’t see how average rookie production from Weeden makes the Browns’ fan base happy because it won’t translate to enough wins.

      And don’t try to convince me that McCoy “looking bad” would have mattered had he gotten the team closer to .500.

      • YourMom says:

        The ravens as a team are defensive oriented, but I’m not sure I’d call the entire AFC defense oriented. 3 of the top 5 teams in the AFC the year Flacco came out had very high powerf offenses. While history does repeat itself that’s not always the case in the NFL. If you’re going to try to predict the type of success the browns will have wi weeden at QB use the talent he has as a QB along with the surrounding pieces added to the browns. Again like I’ve stated before, those browns fans who are excited about the prospect of Brandon weeden starting the season at QB are in the minority. There are actually more fans who’d wish the browns got RGIII than sticking with colt or starting weeden.

      • Bill says:

        The problem is, who can say how his skills and performance in college will translate to the NL field until we see him there? It’s a big step, and not all make it. Scouting reports are only so reliable… or picks would never bust. I prefer to decide what is reasonable to expect, then consider whether the guy should exceed expectations. (BTW, I’d like to hear your case the Weeden will be the answer.)

        As to what they added, what did they really get? TR will help (which is why I think they hold ground despite a tougher schedule), a swap at QB, and what else? An OT to replace Pashos (who was graded a +4.4 by PFF) and a 4th round receiver. The run D will improve some (it couldn’t get much worse) but can you expect much above league average? I don’t think so.

        What percentage of fans are pining for RG3? And what good is it supposed to do?

        • YourMom says:

          You can make that case for any player. No one knows how any player will fair once they get to th NFL field. You cant take where he was drafted and add that to the fact that those players drafted in the same half of the draft will determine how the QBs career will go. Every running back taken in the top 5 in the past what, 7 years has been injury prone and is on another team other than Darren McFadden. Does that mean that will happen to Trent Richardson? No, you think he’ll be the lone bright spot on the browns offense. I personally don’t think Weeden is “the guy”m but I support why they drafted him and where they drafted him because I understand the situation. Kendal wright wasn’t available at 22 so they went to their plan B and took the next best player on their board. They planned on taking weeden after they got wright at 22 whether that been in round two or trading back up into round 1 and then taking the OT in the third if he was still there.
          Now as to what they added. They didn’t add a lot of blockbuster FA aquisitions or the sexiest draft picks outside of TR, but they added some solid pieces all of which will contribute in a starting role or a significant back up position. You already know about weeden so I’ll skip to the OT. Swartchz was the best all-around RT in the draft. He was an all-PAC 12 linemen and has a mean streak suited to be an o-linemen in the AFC north. Anybody can tell he’s an upgrade over the often injured tony pashos. The third round pick Hughes you’re already familiar with. While some did not like the pick I actually thought it was a great pick and with the injury to Phil Taylor that proved to be true. The browns’ biggest weakness on defense was their inability to stop the run and drafting Hughes who’s biggest strength is stopping the run, will help answer that problem in 2012. Travis Benjamin their 4th rounder was the next best receiver available that has the one ability the browns were lacking on their offense that could make an immediate impact and that’s speed. I know receivers like Ruben randle and Stephen hill were available, but randle has a skill set similar to Greg little and Stephen hill is a project and wouldn’t make the immediate impact that Benjamin can make this year. We needed a player that could stretch the field and that’s what Benjamin does. He can plan in the slot and some believe he can even start on the outside as well as play special teams. The LB drafted from Nevada will have to step up and take on a starting role because of the fujita suspension. His strength is his run defense and he’s also solid in zone coverage. The picks after these players will either play rotation roles (like billy Winn from Boise) or will develope into starters In my opinion (like the OG from Colorado).the browns came away with 6 players that could potential start this year out of the 2012 draft.. Not many teams can say theyve had the same success.

          Btw to the RGIII point, the whole city was praying the browns would land the 2nd overall pick to get RGIII. when that didn’t happen a majority of Cleveland’s fans were still pissed they didn’t get him and didn’t want either McCoy, weeden or tannehill which QB was the hot topic to be drafted by the browns that particular week. Since they drafted Richardson a lot of fans are contempt with the pick because they know the possible impact he could have on the team, but a lot of them would still rather have RGIII.

      • Bill says:

        That’s exactly my point: no player is a guarantee based on scouting reports. Bengals fans know that all too well. (Does the name ‘Akili Smith’ ring a bell?) That’s why I established a statistical baseline for QBs picked in the second half of the first round. I’m not arguing that Weeden will produce those numbers because it is the average for a QB at #22. That would be silly.

        I’m saying that Weeden’s arm and touch should make him somewhat above average — perhaps around the level of a Joe Flacco — but 1) a change to the pro-style O, 2) a mediocre-but-slightly-improved O-line (unless you want to claim that a +4.4 rated RT was the bulk of the line’s problems), 3) a WR corps of Greg Little and a bunch of underwhelmers (Massaquoi, Cribbs, Norwood) plus an unproven 4th rounder, and 4) a tough schedule will all pull him down some. So I see a net of an average to slightly above average rookie QB. Not enough above average to make many Browns fans happy anyway. If I end up being wrong about that, then I’m wrong.

        I don’t say this to be mean, but the RG3 thing is absolutely sad. I would rather have had Stephon Gilmore (or Morris Claiborne for that matter) over Dre Kirkpatrick, but I was never pissed about it and couldn’t possibly still be pissed a month later. It only feeds the stereotype.

        • YourMom says:

          No you can not predict anyone’s NFL career, but taking a scouting report while not always accurate and basically guessing how ones NFL future will develop, is more logical than your method. If you look at all the wide receivers taken in the top 10 since 2005 only Calvin Johnson and Braylon Edwards have made the pro bowl at least once. So am I to assume since a majority of those players have been busts that AJ Green and Julio jones will have one good season and then flame out and not be as good as hyped? No, they had scouting reports and their scouting reports were accurate, more accurate than the sample data of wide outs taken in the top ten prior to them.

          • Bill says:

            I don’t think you are hearing me. I am not… am not… saying that Weeden will throw for 2856 yds because that’s the average of those 10 guys. I just compared him to Joe Flacco for goodness sake… not a guy I would call “average”.

            I’m taking that baseline, and adding his scouting report. He has a ‘plus’ arm… accuracy… good touch… doesn’t lock on to WRs… Those move him a several notches above the baseline. But then, according to one SR I saw “sometimes requires a lot of space to set his feet, wind up and deliver the football.” Uh-oh, that’s ding. Mediocre O-line? Another ding. Tough schedule… big ding. Add up the pluses and minuses, and I end up back near the baseline, maybe a smidge above.

            So it’s not BECAUSE of the baseline (which I needed to make a comparison to McCoy and Dalton), but because I am adding up the pluses and minuses in the scouting report, the team, the schedule, and they pretty much cancel each other out.

            This makes more sense to me than saying he can beat the Steelers — or the Bengals — because he was good enough to beat Oklahoma and Texas.

            Now, I will say this as well. If Holmgren will give him time — 2-3 years — I see a Flacco-like QB, not elite, but definitely plus. That is if fans aren’t burning him in effigy first for looking like a rookie in his rookie year..

        • YourMom says:

          To touch on your second paragraph, yeah weeden played in a spread offense, but he played under center and is comfortable taking snaps from under center. The hard part will be grasping the offense. He’ll have all of OTA’s and mini camp to learn the offense. That’s something colt didn’t have the luxury of having. While the browns receivers have underachieved, they aren’t short of talent. Little and Massaquoi weren’t drafted in the 2nd round because they lacked talent. The challenge will be taking that talent and applying it to the field. Add that to josh cribbs’ ability after the catch and Benjamin’s speed you have a much improved WR corps. Not to mention the TEs on the roster. The addition of Swartchz should give the offense the ability and confidence that they can leave him on an island alone to pass protect this allowing them to play Evan Moore and Jordan Cameron more.

          • YourMom says:

            Ok, in your initial blog you never based why he won’t be better than colt on any scouting report. If he’s going to be joe flacco the he’ll be better than colt, right? Comparing Flaccos rookie stats to the year colt had last year, joe had a higher completion percentage, More passing yards, Better yards per comp, same amount of TDs and a better QB rating. If you’re comparing him (weeden) to joe flacco that leads me to believe he’ll have a better statistical season than Colt and a few more wins.

          • Bill says:

            That is without a doubt a best-case scenario. Possible? Sure. Probable? Well…

            With 3 years of stats, putting faith in Massaquoi is risky at best. At some point, he is what his numbers say he is. You can convince me of Cribbs before you can a 4th round speedster. Pretty rare a 4th round rookie receiver makes that big of an impact. With Norwood, I’ll believe it when I see it. If they can keep Watson going and add in more Moore (haha!) plus another step forward from Little, then maybe you’ve got a little something.

            I will say this, the Browns took a good step this year. Rookie mistakes and a tough schedule might blunt some of the signs of progress, but it will be good growth pains. If the front office sticks to the plan and gets a couple more pieces next year, they could finally have something going. And I consider that a good thing. God knows I’m sick of Pittsburgh.

          • Bill says:

            That is probably my fault. I may not have said it altogether like this. For his rookie season, I see Weeden have a season roughly similar to McCoy’s season last year, not Flacco’s rookie season. By year 3 — if he gets to year 3 in Cleveland, and with their track record, that’s legit to question — I think he could be about as good as Flacco is now. So I am saying that I think Weeden has good upside. But this year will be a hard one, and I could see fans calling for Weeden’s head and clamoring for the next RG3 before BW gets to that upside.

          • Bill says:

            Let me flip the tables on you and maybe you’ll see where I’m coming from, because the Bengals have WR questions for their own.

            We’ve got Green obviously, and TE Jermaine Gresham. There’s Jordan Shipley in the slot, to whom you would counter with health concerns… legitimately, since he was concussed in Cleveland as a rookie and missed almost all of last year with a blown out knee. After that, there’s who? Brandon Tate — a poor man’s Josh Cribbs — and a bunch of rookies. If I trot out 5th round speedster Marvin Jones and confidently assert that he will make the whole passing offense work, you aren’t going to raise your eyebrows and ask, “Really? You’re giving me a 5th rounder?”

            That’s why I, as an outsider, have a hard time buying that just adding Benjamin to that WR corps makes the whole group better and presto, the passing game is solved for Weeden.

          • YourMom says:

            Well like Shipley, Massaquoi has been battling injuries every year after his rookie season. He showed promise as a rookie that’s why some people aren’t willing to give up on him. I’m not saying Benjamin will have the impact of a rookie receiver like aj green or mike Williams in his rookie year, but no one on our team averaged more than 13 yards a catch who had at least 20 receptions. With Benjamin’s speed he has the potential to be what mike Wallace was or even Emanuel sanders in his first two years. Someone to stretch the field and free the middle of the field for the possession receivers and the TEs. You’re probably right though with the amount of time Weeden will have. That’s where his age comes into play and quite frankly the shelf life of the coaching staff. No one in Cleveland likes shurmur and if the offense under performs again there’s a good chance he won’t be around, thus bringing in another coach who will want to bring in HIS QB.

            The bengals have more talent on offense than the browns that’s clear. Aj green, mo sanu you guys got in the third, Jordan Shipley, jermaine Gresham, and the others you’ve mentioned. Marvin jones has been compared to mike Wallace so honestly, I wouldn’t count him out to make an impact for the bengals this season. Not one mike Wallace had as a rookie, but a solid impact. Especially seeing as Jordan Shipley probably won’t be the same jordan Shipley until next year. I don’t count any pick out. Seeing Marques Colston go from 7th round pick to one of the NFLs top 15 receivers IMO. Or running backs like legarret Blount rushing for Over 1000 yards and 5 yards a carry In 13 games as an ur drafted rookie. I don’t know much about the bengals team and I don’t pretend to. That’s why a lot of people had a problem with the blog although it was your opinion you as the outsider don’t know what it’s like as a browns fan. If a few bengals fans thought that benjarvous green-Ellis was the next Cory dillon and I wrote a blog about how he was and you got wind of it, would you not voice your opinion about how wrong I was? I’m sure tons of bengals fans will on my blog if I did that blasting me and my credibility.

          • Bill says:

            I actually would be interested in a post like that from an outsider, just to see how the other side views things. Sometimes as fans we are too close to the situation, and we can put too much faith in guys because we want to see the positive impact more than the flaws. I’ve done it myself, more than once. That’s why I tend to be a little more skeptical going just on reports and want to see something on the field.

            Unlike Sean, I never thought Browns fans were out of place commenting on the post. I wish it had not degenerated so quickly, which I did not want to happen to this one, thus the warning. Your side got pretty nasty pretty fast, but since they came in thinking I had attacked Weeden as terrible player (not exactly what I said), I get it.

            I hadn’t even thought about the Shurmur angle. That is the biggest problem the Browns have had. They want so much to win NOW that they won’t stick to any one plan long enough for it to flourish. Hard to succeed when you’re always starting over. Sounds like you recognize that though.

            As close to heresy as it is for me to say this, I kind of would like to see the Browns finally put it together again. A real rivalry again — with two good teams — would be a ton of fun. And I would love for the balance of power in the AFCN to finally flip. Let Baltimore and Pittsburgh own the basement of the division for a while.

          • YourMom says:

            I’m not the blogger type, but there are teams I follow a little outside of Cleveland. I know what you mean, everyone gets a little bias to their teams. I can tell you’re really high on cincinnati players as I would be on OSU players. I came in attacking at first with the Andy dalton has no soul comment, but if you see he bleacher report link it’s title is negative and leaves the perception that your entire blog rips Brandon Weeden.

            Yeah some of the browns fans got out of hand, but you gotta think at it from our point of view. Everyone in e country blasts e browns. Their story has become a national one since their return to the nfl in 1999. That a long with the misleading title on the bleacher report got some people in rage.

            The shurmur case is sad, but true. Everyone in the NFL wants to win now. Cam Cameron was fired after his first year as a head coach because the dolphins wanted to win now. It’s just th culture in the nfl and Jim harbaughs success doesn’t help that either.

            I too would like to see the browns do well, obviously. Unlike the other browns I like cinci and I love what they’re doing down there. They hit the jack pot with the Carson trade and I’ve thought all along that they would be as bad as people thought. They’ve got an awesome defense line and a ton of athletes on that side of the ball. Michael Johnson is an under rated player and geno Atkins is an up and comer at DT.

          • Bill says:

            I don’t blame Browns fans for defending their guy. You should. Weeden is your guy now. It’s kind of fun… until someone crosses the line. And someone always will. I think it comes from sparring with arrogant Steelers fans too often. The idiocy rubs off a little.

            One thing I’m going to be watching through the season is how Browns fans react to whatever happens. I really hope they don’t do to Weeden what they’ve done to McCoy. If they can get through the growing pains, they’ll have something worth rooting for in a couple of years/

  3. Sean says:

    i still dont see why the hell browns fans are on this website, and bill i think this was a great article like usual, WHO-DEY!!!!!!!!

    • YourMom says:

      The bleacher report posted a link titled “bengals blog rips weeden” so naturally being the browns fan that I am wanted to read this said blog. That’s why I’m here. Someone writes a blog about my citys team I have every right to read and comment as I please.

      • Sean says:

        bleacher report posted that? where? i didnt see it, that explains things lol

        • Seubs says:

          It started with the The Plain Dealer in Cleveland posting the link, then Bleacher Report picked it up. Thanks for the traffic Brownies.

          • YourMom says:

            Youre welcome. That blog wasn’t getting any comments until a browns fan posted anyway.

          • Bill says:

            Don’t make too much of that. I put that post up late in the day. It’s not like it was up for a full day before someone commented.

          • YourMom says:

            And the person who commented first was a browns fan. All I’m saying.

          • alekccincy says:

            YourMom – I think it’s great you guys want to defend your team on another team’s blog, but why can’t you do it with some class? Your on “away turf” here at Whodeyfans.com, maybe try focusing on your disagreements with the post and less on insulting Bengals fans. All I’m saying.

  4. Yourothermom says:

    Setting aside the silly nature of this kind of comparison to other #22-ish picks with little regard for examining the specific circumstances of each of them…

    Teams shied away from Weeden thinking he’d have a shorter career due to his age. In terms of raw talent, most seemed to feel he’d have gone closer to top 10 otherwise. So if you’re going to make this kind of projection, seems you’re comparing him to players most GMs felt were lesser QB prospects.

    • Bill says:

      Tell yourself whatever helps you sleep at night. If you want to believe that he would have been a top 10 guy, go ahead. The fact is, the Browns could just as easily have waited until #37 to get Weeden. Hell, they could have waited until #87.

      After Miami took Tannehill, nobody else needed a QB. Denver was the next to take one at #57, and with Manning on their roster, they sure weren’t going to take a guy who would be over 30 by the time Manning retires. The next QB didn’t go until #102 in the fourth round, proving that demand was pretty low by that point.

      I know you’ll throw out the predictable excuse that another team would have grabbed him if the Browns had left Weeden on the board, so you’d better be ready to make a strong case for who that team would have been. It’s a case you can’t make.

      So how does it feel knowing your team could have gotten a would-have-been-top-10-if-he-wasn’t-old guy a round or two later, allowing them to take someone like Riley Rieff or Whitney Mercilus? Too smart by half again.

      Or maybe you don’t want to look at those specific circumstances.

    • Bill says:

      Take out the outliers of Rodgers and Boller, and the average is still almost exactly the same, being 21 yds less. And I used the numbers for several guys who had the benefit of 1-3 full seasons on the roster to learn the system and their receivers… something Weeden won’t have. As I pointed out, the numbers for true rookies were worse. But I didn’t use them, did I?

      Asking to use hindsight to nitpick the numbers to come out the way you wish them to be doesn’t change reality. But nice try.

      The Bengals got several players a round or two later than projected, which was why their draft grade was unanimous A’s and A-’s. Will I evaluate those guys based on their projected spots? No, they get evaluated based on where they got taken. And Weeden got taken at #22, so he gets compared to #22s. Why is that hard to grasp?

      • YourMom says:

        I think you’d have to evaluate them at the spot where they were projected to an extent because their talent and where they were actually taken don’t equate. Weeden would have been a top 15 pick and may have even went 8 to Miami instead of tannehill if he were 7 years younger. If his talent level grades out as above average then you expect positive results. Cinci signed votez burcifit as an undrafted free agent and he was once looked at as a top ten talent. They signed him thinking he will contribute day one. If he doesn’t contribute although the risk is low, fans will be mad because of the potential of what could have been.

        • Bill says:

          Vontaze Burfict is an extreme example, but a good one. Should I use Von Miller, #2 pick, to gauge Burfict, a CFA, because he had top 10 potential 18 months ago? Burfict’s attitude and lack of discipline devalued him to the point that he got passed over 250+ times. Is that potential still there? I don’t know. It depends on his attitude and discipline. But Weeden is different because his biggest knock is his age, not attitude or discipline.

          Just out of curiosity, I decided to check who else would have made the list had I gone as high as #10. Here is who else would have made the list: Blaine Gabbert (#10, 2011), Christian Ponder (#12, 2011), Matt Leinart (#10, 2006), Jay Cutler (#11, 2006), and Ben Roethlisberger (#11, 2004). Two good ones, a bust, a guy I think will be another dud (Gabbert) and an average guy (Ponder).

          • YourMom says:

            He had top ten potential at the start of the college football season. He dropped before the combine to mid to late first round and after poor combine results and a not so impressive pro day he dropped to a mid rounder. Not because he wasn’t an above average talent, but because his character and work ethic were questioned. Come draft day he wasn’t even drafted and only god knows why. Despite all that I’m sure because of his talent he’ll be looked upon to have some sort of an impact especially with Rey maulagas (spelling?) off the field problems. If he doesn’t perform the risk would be minimal, but there are those who think because of his talent level that he will/should succeed. So yeah the potential IS there, but will h finally turn the light on and be the player he was thought to be prior to his final collegiate year? Who knows. Weeden is different because of his age, correct, but hiis age doesn’t mean he can’t play, it just means his window to play and succeed is much shorter than average. If you’re going to judge weeden by your method of draft position history, Matt leinart had a little success early, but nothing to hang your hat on, big Ben has two super bowls, jay cutler, a few playoff appearances, Blaine gabbert is overrated, and Christian ponder who will probably be a joe flacco type of game manager who will depend on his phenomenal running back and solid run defense although they’ve tapered off the past couple of years. Weeden has the talent, more than McCoy it’s just a matter of how quick he can pick up the offense and how the offensive line and receivers hold up.

  5. YourMom says:

    I think you could make a case for the texans. They need a back up not necessarily someone to take over for schaub in the future and weeden would be a better backup than Yates and with schaub being often injured that scenario could be an attractive one. You could also make a case for the packers seeing as they lost Matt Flynn and need a back up. Quarterback isn’t a glaring need, but I think their GMs philosophy has always been take the best available player.

    • Bill says:

      I’ll give you some credit with the Texans. They ended up not taking a QB at all, but they might have gone for him in the third round, as Weeden would have been outstanding value by then. (They made no picks in the second round.) Unless the Texans were willing to use a 1st round pick on him, the Browns still could have had him at #37.

      You are right that a guy like Weeden fits the Packers philosophy, but are they really going to use a high pick on a guy Weeden’s age, just to sit behind Rodgers? I can’t see it. They grabbed Flynn in the 7th.

      • YourMom says:

        Seeing as the texans took the kid out of Illinois with not glaring need at OLB, they were going after best available instead of need. I’m convinced if weeden were higher on their board they would have taken him there instead of mercilus. With the packers and seeing as Rodgers is still young, although it may be a bit far fetched I do believe if their defense didn’t play so awful last year, they would have Atleast considered taking weeden. Hell even maybe the 49ers. Im not and I don’t think they’re completely sold on the QB from Nevada.

  6. YourMom says:

    Just to comment to Alekcinci, I havent disrespected any bengals fans unless I felt disrespected first. I may have took cheap shots at the bengals organization, but not you guys as fans. Whatever anyone else has said about you guys as fans I have nothing to do with. Those are grown men and I can’t tell them what to post and hat not to post.